Part of the rationale for the government’s policy of 1.5 million new homes over the life of the parliament is that the additional economic activity created would be good for UK plc. But there is also the thinking that the additional supply should, theoretically, reduce house price inflation to the sort of levels seen in continental Europe. Because of a lack of supply and high house price inflation, for many getting onto the housing ladder is tantalisingly just out of reach.

Recent research from Public First suggests just 10% of young adults are in a position to purchase their first home. That means around 350,000 households have the necessary income and savings. Everyone else is effectively locked out, often for years.

But this isn’t just a first-time buyer problem. It affects the entire market.

When people cannot take the first step, those already on the ladder struggle to move up. That slows transactions, weakens demand, and creates real uncertainty for developers. Especially those working at a smaller scale.

That is why I welcomed the Home Builders Federation’s renewed call for a replacement scheme for Help to Buy. A targeted form of support that helps with deposits could make a meaningful difference.

At the moment, far too much depends on whether someone has family support. That is not sustainable.

What it means for development

Public First’s modelling suggests a replacement scheme could expand the first-time buyer market by as much as 80%. That kind of shift would bring greater movement through the chain. According to the same research, it could also support the delivery of almost 20,000 additional homes per year.

The key is understanding whether that growth would be genuinely new. From a development finance perspective, that distinction matters. If this encourages more projects to come forward, particularly from SME developers, then it is worth exploring. If it simply changes the shape of existing demand, we need to look harder at how it is structured.

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At HTB, we support developers who are ready to build but need confidence in the exit. When there is real buyer demand, they can plan ahead and move forward. That confidence is critical, especially for those operating in regional markets or taking on smaller schemes.

Learning from the past

Help to Buy achieved a lot, but we should be honest about what went wrong. A large proportion of buyers could have managed without it. Some earned more than average. And in many cases, the price caps were not aligned with local affordability.

In some cases, house price inflation on Help to Buy schemes ran at levels above that on non-Help to Buy stock, simply because some (larger) developers knew their Help to Buy stock was more accessible and saleable.

A new scheme needs to be better targeted. It should reach those who truly need support, not those simply looking for a better deal. That means thoughtful regional design, tighter controls, and a delivery model that focuses on the right outcome.

We also have to recognise the wider risk. If support for buyers is not matched with the ability to build more homes, all we do is fuel price inflation.

This kind of scheme should form part of a broader strategy. One that helps unlock land, supports planning reform, and brings smaller builders into the picture.

Why it matters for SME developers

Too often, policy discussions focus on numbers without thinking about delivery. But we will not meet housing need without the contribution of SME housebuilders. These are the firms willing to take on complex, smaller sites and deliver into local communities. And they need the right conditions to do it.

A stronger demand side helps. If a well-designed scheme makes it easier for first-time buyers to commit, that creates the sales confidence developers rely on. It unlocks projects. It supports reinvestment. And it helps bring much-needed homes to market.

Looking ahead

This isn’t about going back. It is about learning from what worked and improving what did not.

Design it well, and everyone benefits.