The index, which reports on construction starts under £100m, shows that the value of underlying work starting on-site during the three months to April dropped 9% and remained 22% below 2025 levels.

Residential construction starts declined 8% from the previous three months, and were down 33% against the 2025 figures. Non-residential project starts were flat from the previous three months, and up 2% on a year ago.

While the fall in activity is less severe than seen during previous months, there’s a general fear that the industry is within the eye of the storm and these results are a harbinger of potentially worse to come, Glenigan said.

Aside from international turmoil, UK political infighting has led to policy stagnation, and a lack of investor and consumer confidence means contractors and subcontractors are keeping their shovels clean until greater certainty returns.

Commenting on the Index, Glenigan’s economics director, Allan Wilen, said: “Faced with heightened geopolitical uncertainty generated by the Iran War, investors are reassessing their development plans.

“While a rise in office, retail, and health projects helped stabilise non-residential starts during the three months to April, both residential and civil engineering starts continued to decline.’’

There were some bright spots in the data. The slight uptick in non-residential starts was mainly driven by offices, which experienced an exceptionally strong period, rocketing 99% over the preceding three months and remaining an impressive 94% above 2025 results.

According to Glenigan, this was largely driven by activity in the capital, with standout projects like the £50m 105 Old Broad Street office refurbishment in the City of London contributing to growth.

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Retail and health also increased from the previous three months, up 13% and 12% respectively, but both were still down around 10% on last year’s figures. Education fell 10% during the index period but was up 12% on 2025’s results.

Unfortunately, all other verticals saw a substantial decline as the geopolitical turmoil started to bite, disrupting vital supply chains, driving up costs, and dampening confidence, inevitably leading to delays.

Regionally, it was also a mixed bag. London experienced a particularly robust Index period, soaring 25% against the preceding three months to finish 59% up on 2025 results. As previously noted, a strong performance in the office sector helped drive this growth.

Northern Ireland was also in clover, rising 20% compared to the preceding three months to stand 53% up on the previous year. The North East also performed well, posting a 14% increase during the Index period, up by almost a fifth against the previous year.

Elsewhere, the picture painted was one of decline. The West Midlands experienced an especially poor period, declining 17% against the preceding three months and 36% against the previous year.

The South West also performed poorly, declining 44% against the preceding three months and a massive 60% down against the previous year. The South East fell  17% against the preceding three months and 34% against the previous year.

While the upcoming King’s Speech may provide a chance to reassess and reset the national direction, “there’s a general consensus that there will be fewer opportunities in the back half of this year, which also implies far fiercer competition,’’ said Glenigan’s Allan.

“Savvy players will no doubt have strategies in place to capitalise on this risk and opportunity, and I’d urge those who are currently behind the curve to start seriously considering their own game plans and how they can stay afloat during an upcoming period of disruption.

“Niches, including data centres, purpose-built student accommodation and supermarkets, present pockets of growth and those that can either already service or diversify to meet requirements stand to weather the headwinds currently gathering force.”